The End Game Chaos in Afghanistan

President Obama has already committed that US troops will start leaving Afghanistan by mid 2011. This decision was announced to pacify the growing domestic disapproval for Afghan war and to protect recession ridden US economy from further decline. Although military leaders have repeatedly said that the withdrawal time frame is tentative and US forces will stay in Afghanistan as long as required, but the US President himself has not backtracked from his public commitment. To an average Afghan the message is clear, “US troops will be leaving soon”.

They have held out for almost nine long years, they certainly can do it for another year or so. For them it kindles hope that Afghans as a nation can come out of occupation as victorious, frustrating the efforts of the only superpower of the world to subjugate them. It besides highlighting inaptness of their operational plans exposes inability of US lead coalition to correctly read the nature of conflict they would be confronted with in Afghanistan.

US strategy to give surge to war against terror in Afghanistan by inducting an additional 40,000 troops and capturing Kandahar, a Taliban strong hold, before leaving Afghanistan seems to have run out of steam. General McChrystal has announced a delay in the planned operation to capture Kandahar as NATO Forces need to take more deliberate approach due to its complexity. One wonders if this operation will ever materialize as attack on Kandahar risks driving more people into the fold of Taliban and Al-Qaeda. On the other end collation partners are keen to have their troops back home to satisfy their own people.  Poland’s Prime Minister has already expressed his desire that NATO should develop a timetable to end its mission in Afghanistan. British government also needs to review her commitment to Afghanistan vis-à-vis her large budget deficit. While collation partners are getting wary of their commitments in Afghanistan their military leadership is unsure of their success in Kandahar as evident from the statement of General McChrystal, “The US cannot be seen to lose a big, well advertised operation as planned for Kandahar”. The uncertainty expressed by the General in spite of having the world best resources at his disposal speaks of the complexity of the operation. Fatigued collation and unsure military leadership provides an appropriate opportunity to those who want to exploit the situation to their advantage.

While it is evident that US lead collation forces will leave Afghanistan the regional powers have become more active to ensure the protection of their interests in the country. During London Conference Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has already expressed his disapproval for enhanced Indian role in Afghanistan. In the best interest of the regional peace the idea was widely accepted by global military leaders. It was to Indian detest who has already invested about $1.3 billion in Afghanistan and wants to build strong relations that would place her at a position of advantage against Pakistan and China. She will be able to confront Pakistan with two front scenario while competing China for control of Afghan natural resources. Reportedly a team of US geologists have discovered $ 1 trillion untapped mineral wealth in Afghanistan. As per New York Times report the deposits include that of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and lithium ores. It is reported that the mineral wealth is scattered throughout the country including the south and east along the border with Pakistan. The Chinese firm is already working in Aynak copper mine located south of Kabul. The mineral resource potential of Afghanistan is such that it will trigger competition between China, India and even Russia to have greater role in its exploration.

India needed to recover from the setback she suffered at London Conference in order to have greater role in Afghanistan. The only way she could sway the world opinion in her favor was to malign Pakistan of supporting Taliban and Al-Qaeda. To be able to effectively reach out to the global audience the report was orchestrated to be issued by London School of Economics (LSE) maligning ISI of training, supporting and funding Taliban operating in Afghanistan. A crafty undertaking which has nothing to do with reality but can be easily bought by NATO forces to justify their inability to succeed in Afghanistan. What is wrong with the report is that it over stretched its limits of imagination by suggesting that ISI is represented at Quetta Shura and even President of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari visited senior Taliban prisoners assuring them of his support. At first place Quetta Shura doesn’t exist and what so ever remnants that may have existed have been removed through the arrest of prominent Taliban leaders in recent past. Interaction of President Zardari having diametrically opposed set of believes to that of Taliban with Taliban prisoners is absolutely inconceivable. One can predict with certainty that the bogy of this report will be exposed soon. It is only a gimmick designed at misleading public to gain space in lucrative post NATO Afghanistan.

Alam Rind

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on Jun 28 2010. Filed under Editorials, World. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry