India’s War Hysteria
Pakistan Thursday, December 24th, 2009Toying with the idea of having limited war under nuclear hangover in Indian subcontinent is rather a dangerous notion. I am sure; Indian Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor fully understands the implications of such an undertaking. It will also be inapt to consider that he made such an assertion out of exuberance or it was a plane expression of his personal military thoughts and nothing more.
It certainly was a well thought out and a carefully timed statement avowed while Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s was on a state visit to USA. A visit to which Indian media is attaching a lot of importance being the first official visit by any head of the state after President Obama was sworn into the office. Being scheduled immediately after President Obama’s visit to China it divulged future American outlook for the area and possible role for India in the region. For Indian consumption, Joint Statement issued on November 24, 2009 reaffirmed the global strategic partnership between India and the United States and described it as “indispensable for global peace and security”. If also highlighted the desire of the two leaders to, “defeat terrorist safe havens in Pakistan and Afghanistan”.
Interestingly, U.S.-China Joint Statement issued on November 17, 2009 “supports the efforts of Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight terrorism, maintain domestic stability and achieve sustainable economic and social development, and support the improvement and growth of relations between India and Pakistan”. It implicitly assigns regional leadership role to China and confers upon them the responsibility to resolve regional disputes, much to the Indian disappointment. Americans could not ignore China their largest trading pattern, an emerging economy and a future supper power. It is while Indian Prime Minister was busy convincing American authorities of Indian ability to act as a counter weight to China, the statement of their Army Chief reflected upon the willingness of Indian Armed Forces to exert themselves for the fulfillment of Indo-U.S. objectives in the region.
Such aggressive statement by the Indian Army Chief reflects on their regional aspirations and a desire to subjugate Pakistan. The hypothesis seems to be based on self presumed and flawed assumption that they have been able to create a dent in the will of the people through unabated suicidal attacks. It would be very naive of them to consider that Pakistan is anywhere close to exhaustion and they can replay East Pakistan episode. Indian involvement with so called Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and their anti Pakistan activities in Afghanistan are well known. The focus of their military planning seems to hinge on the assumption that by applying their so publicized “cold start strategy” they will be able to achieve dual aim of fixing Pakistan Army and triggering centrifuge forces resulting into disintegration of the country. They fail to recognize that the people of Pakistan fully understand the criticality of the situation and are much more united than ever before. They have the courage to render sacrifices and resolve to preserve their independence as amply demonstrated during Swat and Waziristan operations.
Defeat of Taliban at Swat and Waziristan must have come as a disappointing surprise for those who are orchestrating them. It broke the myth of popular support for them. Even the moderate Muslims of tribal areas which constitute predominant majority have shown their repulsion towards Taliban’s myopic and flawed fundamentalism. On top of it, striking victory by Pakistan Army in these areas must have resulted into loss of billions of dollars spent on training, arming and maintaining so called Taliban. Certainly, a severe blow has been inflicted on Taliban and their sponsors. It shattered the saga of their invincibility and paved the way for their elimination from other parts of the country. Certainly our adversaries would like to extend a helping hand to them. A threatening statement by Indian Army Chief, if nothing else, will impose caution on Pakistan’s military planners. They will be more careful while committing additional troops for anti Taliban operations. It indirectly will help taking pressure off than and by default delay American victory in Afghanistan.
While contemplating such thoughts, Indian Military hierarchy must remain cognizant of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. A fact which averted war during 2001 (attack on Indian Parliament) and 2008 (Mumbai attack) stand offs. There was no involvement of Pakistan’s government or any of its organs in those foolish acts. On the contrary, India used these events to vent out propaganda against Pakistan and to draw short term advantages like severing peace talks and thereby stalling peace process in the Sub-continent. The notion of fighting a limited war under nuclear hangover failed in the recent past and is most unlikely to succeed in future. Nevertheless, such statements can serve the lesser aim of increasing mistrust between the two neighbors, thereby, further delaying peace talks, covering up their atrocities in occupied Kashmir, continuing with the stubborn attitude towards resolution of water dispute etc. Such an approach certainly won’t help in resolving regional disputes, which constitutes the core hurdle in India’s path to her regional ambitions. The process can also lead to antagonism in US India relations as through blind pursuance of her regional agenda India can hurt US interests in Afghanistan. One wonders, India while sitting in the American lap is covertly working to settle the score on behalf of Russians, her former ally, by supporting Taliban and thus orchestrating American defeat in Afghanistan. By Alam Rind
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on Dec 24 2009. Filed under